HOLY @$!# ! CARMELO ANTHONY?

This is huge people. The New Jersey Nets might get Carmelo Anthony, one of the best players in the league.

For clarity's sake, let's look at how the trade seems to stand:
Nets get Carmelo Anthony and possibly DJ Augustin
Nuggets get Derrick Favors, Andrei Kirilenko, and picks from (probably) Jersey
Bobcats get Devin Harris
Jazz get Boris Diaw

If you're ready and willing, here's that again with each player's current team:
Nets get Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets) and possibly DJ Augustin (Bobcats)
Nuggets get Derrick Favors (Nets), Andrei Kirilenko (Jazz), and picks from (probably) Jersey
Bobcats get Devin Harris (Nets)
Jazz get Boris Diaw (Bobcats)

Part 1: The Trade

Reports indicate that the Nets will lose Derrick Favors, their 2011 1st rounder, and Devin Harris. That's too much. It leaves them with a two-player core of S'Melo and Brooky BroPez (I'm sick of formula nicknames like KD, CP3 and D-Wade so this is my contribution) and no avenue for improvement. They can't sign anyone significant because they used their cap space on Anthony, they can't trade for anyone significant because they have no significant assets, and they can't draft anyone significant for another year because they don't have a 1st rounder. They will improve this year and stagnate next.


Admittedly, one of their young players, i.e. Terrence Williams or Anthony Morrow, could show great promise and either become great or be traded for a really good player but in all likelihood, the roster is filled with role-players who won't be, and aren't valuable enough to land, an excellent third player. Given the NBA's history of teams overpaying for marginal talent in the hopes of riding stars to championship contention (sources: Turkoglu Jermaine O'Neal Shawn Marion Toronto's roster in Toronto, Kenyon Martin in Denver [intwesting], Shaq in Phoenix, etc...), the Nets will probably find a way to give too much in money, players, and/or picks for someone with over-hyped potential or one above-average year and make themselves playoff fodder. Come to think of it, Harris has one great year and Favors is an unproven talent. Maybe Billy King can be the smart GM in this by keeping the pick.

However, if the Nets retain either Harris or the pick, they should be golden. If they keep Harris, they have a Big Three and a great young supporting cast. If they keep the pick, they could draft a star. They can also trade for a really good player by sending Harris away outright or packaging either with a young talent like Morrow.

The only remaining question is if a deal can get done if the Nets withhold Harris or the pick and I think it can if Jersey chooses the pick. If New Jersey forgets Augustin (he's not worth it), Charlotte is left getting Devin Harris for Boris Diaw (effectively chump change, sorry dude) and has to give up something else. Denver knows it won't get equal value because (A) Anthony has demanded a trade, (B) Anthony can turn off teams by refusing to sign a contract extension (his current contract expires after this season and he can then leave with his team receiving no compensation), (C) no team ever gets equal value for its best player and (D) the Nuggets have already pursued, as primary compensation, talent inferior to Favors in Joakim Noah. Assuming Charlotte is amenable, superstar talent, a decent role player with a massive expiring contract providing future cap flexibility and mid-level picks should get the deal done. Who knows, maybe someone can convince Utah to throw one of its picks over its shoulder on the way out.

Part 2: The S'Melo/BroPez Nets

Since we all know that all of this will come to pass, let's take stock of the new Nets' assets: We've got two stars in Anthony and Brook Lopez, young role players in Morrow, Williams, and Travis Outlaw, a reliable backup guard in Jordan Farmar and a draft pick that will probably be lottery or mid-round. Everyone is young enough to be good after a couple of lottery and 1st-round-playoff-exit seasons and the Nets have the assets to acquire another star in the draft or a trade.

Of course, it's possible that acquiring Anthony will make the Nets another team that's just good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to really contend and not bad enough to rebuild. Besides the aforementioned hope of acquiring another star, Brook Lopez! Brook Lopez will be a better player than anyone the Nuggets put around Anthony. He plays the most or second-most important position in basketball, already put up better numbers than Nene, basically equaled the aging Chauncey Billups's PPG, and surpassed J.R. Smith's PPG. Without using advanced stats (of which I am not a fan), I would say that Lopez was generally more productive than Billups or Smith because his good and improving rebounding and defense outweigh any of Smith's or Billups's non-scoring contributions.

In my entirely uninformed opinion, no middling playoff team has had a fringe superstar who is one of the best scorers in the league, one of the best centers in the league, and the nebulous third very good player I've been alluding to. Basically, everything hinges on that draft pick. Who woulda thunk it?